A few weeks ago, I was asked to give a speech on the topic: “What is Web 2.0?” This invitation probably came as a surprise to many members of the technical team at Plaxo, who harbor secret doubts that I can even spell PHP.
Of course, concisely defining Web 2.0 is difficult. While many excellent analyses exist (e.g. O'Reilly's "What is Web 2.0"), the Web 2.0 moniker itself has been applied to everything from a collection of underlying technologies (Ajax, REST, RSS, LAMP), to community generated content (a la Flickr, MySpace, or Wikipedia), to the general transition of website from isolated information silos, and—of course—a way to convince VCs to invest in recycled, failed business plans from the late ‘90s. To paraphrase a famous line from Macbeth, Web 2.0 is in danger of becoming a term “Invested in by an Idiot, full of Sound and Fury, Signifying nothing.”
This is a real shame, because behind the hype and confusion, there are truly revolutionary changes afoot. There are over a billion internet users worldwide (vs. some 250 million at the height of the bubble). There were over 1.4 Trillion SMS messages sent in 2005, generating over $50B in revenues. And, new services with just the right value proposition for the time, like Skype and MySpace, can attract over 50M users in their first 18 months of operation.
To understand these dramatic shifts in the context of Web 2.0, however, I think it’s useful to look beyond the current technology and buzz words and look at what is happening now in historical context. It’s a big oversimplification, but every computing era can be defined largely by the kinds of revolutionary changes in interactions or “connections” that it enabled. With that as a framework, the revolutionary aspect of the mainframe and minicomputer eras of the 60’s and 70’s was the ability to connect businesses and their computers to data. All the fundamental work on memory, I/O, databases, backup and recovery, etc. etc. were supported that goal.
Similarly, the desktop operating systems, graphical user interfaces, and killer apps of the PC revolution were really about making it easy for people to connect to computers. Bridges, routers, LANs, etc. of the networking era of the early ‘90s? They were about connecting computers to other computers. And then, in the late ‘90s, “Web 1.0” took the next logical step of connecting people to businesses and data on other computers around the world. Search engines, online commerce, etc. were all both contributors to and outcomes of this new way of connecting.
| Era | When | What was "Connected" | Leaders Born in this Era |
| Mainframe & Minicomputers | 1960’s and ‘70s | Connect business and their computers to data | IBM |
| PC’s | 1980’s | Connect People to Computers | Microsoft, Apple |
| Networking | Early ‘90s | Connect Computers to other Computers | Cisco |
| Web 1.0 | 1994-2001 | Connect People to Businesses & Data on other Computers | AOL, Yahoo!, Amazon, Google |
| Web 2.0 | Now | Connect People to People | TBD. Candidates may include: Flickr, Skype, MySpace, Facebook |
Where are we now? There’s a lot of great technology that is making it easy for data on one computer to “connect” automatically with data on other computers. (Hence, the Web 2.0 focus on AJAX, RSS, etc.)
But, perhaps more importantly, we’re really entering an era where the primary emphasis is on connecting people to other people. Whether it’s social networks, community generated content, VoIP, or new mobile technology, the truly revolutionary and business-worthy ideas that are being born now are the ones that bring together technology and people and let creative combinations and business models flourish.
Of course, computing eras do overlap. Indeed, they build on each other. And, we are far from optimizing any of the “connections” outlined above. But, I do think it is instructive to look at the companies that are formed in each of the eras. Of course, a lot of new companies are born, compete with each other, and ultimately disappear. But, the companies that really lead the way in making the “connections” work tend to enjoy enormous success and can build on that success to become leaders in subsequent eras. Who will be the leader in connecting people to people? We have our own view on that, of course. Let the market decide….
Hi Ben and readers of Plaxo blog
Good posting, and I like it that you are analyzing and discussing the transitions in technology. You have correctly identified that we are in another transitional stage right now, but you have missed the big picture. Much like train makers in the 1940s and 1950s understood their technology was changing from steam power to diesel and electric, they missed out on the big picture of airline travel.
Yes, there is a change happening, but the person-to-person communication is NOT flickr, Skype and MySpace, etc. Those are TRIVIAL in contrast to the big picture - the world is already on the mobile internet model of connectivity. Based on the most personal, the fastest, always on and always carried media - the mobile phone - which also has a built-in payment mechanism.
We've know that mobile phones are addictive for a few years now (verified in the Belgian study in 2004) but now the latest University of Melbourne study revealed not only that mobile phones are as addictive as smoking (!) but also that mobile phones are TWICE as addictive as personal computers (!!!). What is the most addictive service on mobile phones? SMS text messaging.
So lets bring in numbers from end of 2005. 1 billion users on the internet. But over twice that, 2.1 billion users of mobile phones. Of the 1 billion internet users, already 250 million of them access the web via MOBILE PHONE (the biggest three of those are China, Japan and Korea). Another nearly 400 million access the web both via PC and mobile phone. ONLY 400 million access the internet exclusively via PC.
How about data applications? The biggest data app on the web is as we all know, e-mail. How many users? Technorati measured at end of 2005 that out of the 1.2 billion e-mail boxes, there are 668 million individual users of e-mail. Meanwhile over at the mobile internet side, check these numbers.... 1.4 BILLION people are already active users of SMS text messaging worldwide.
For all the fuss about Web 2.0 and getting cool community apps and evolving the internet, this is like the 1990-1993 (before the famous Time cover which put the word "internet" into mass usage) when various mainframe computer systems were trying to evolve the internet interface at the time - called Gopher. This was before web browsers (first Mosaic, then Netscape, now Internet Explorer). Today NOBODY cares about Gopher.
If you want to understand the real evolution in communication and connectivity, please PLEASE do look at how pervasive, personal, always on, fast, connected, and addictive the mobile phone is. THAT is the platform for your future.
More in my bestselling books, especially my second (m-Profits) and my fourth (Communities Dominate Brands) and at my blogsite www.communities-dominate.blogs.com
Tomi T Ahonen :-)
4-time bestselling author and consultant
founding member Forum Oxford, Wireless Watch, Carnival of the Mobilists and Engagement Alliance
website www.tomiahonen.com